Sam Stein

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Sam Stein

The Huffington Post   stein@huffingtonpost.com

GOP Looks To Redistrict Itself Back Into Power

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July 7, 2008 08:51 AM


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For months, a sense of dread has been percolating within Republican circles over potentially massive congressional losses in 2008. Facing the possibility of a more pronounced minority status in the House and more than a couple seats lost in the Senate, the GOP has begun setting its sights on a contingency plan: redistricting.

Republican officials now believe that the party's best hope for retaking seats in Congress may come during gubernatorial elections in 2010. Should the GOP win back the majority of these seats (Democrats currently occupy 28 state capitols), they would be extremely well positioned to influence the redistricting of the political map that will come after the 2010 census.

"The 2010 elections are almost as important or equally important as the elections this year. After redistricting in 2011, the governors are going to have a huge influence in determining the political makeup of this country," said Chris Schrimpf, a spokesman for the Republican Governors Association. "We could feasibly see 25 to 30 congressional seats swing as the result of redistricting. And the state legislatures and governor could determine that swing. Can the National Republican Congressional Committee make a statement like that with a straight face? It would be harder for them."

The suggestion that the elections of 2010 could be as important as those in 2008 may seem like hyperbole or distraction from a Republican Party bracing for big losses. But Democratic officials are also smarting to the premise. One insider, who described the idea as a "pretty sad reflection of the Republican Party's state of affairs," nevertheless conceded that it was on everyone's radar.

Brian Namey, spokesman for the Democratic Governors Association described Democratic governors as "a formidable line of defense against Republicans who would like to Tom DeLay us out of congressional seats."

An abundance of seats are in play. There will be 36 gubernatorial races in 2010, compared to 11 such elections this cycle. Of those 36, 19 are for state houses currently held by Democrats. And of those 19, ten will involve Democratic governors who won't be running for reelection (either because of term limits or retirement).

Because redistricting follows the 2010 census, each state will be reevaluating its congressional map in 2011. And in almost every one of these states, a tremendous amount of authority for this endeavor is placed in the governor's hands.

In 28 states, the governor has the authority to veto any redistricting plan. In eight separate states, the governor can veto only a congressional plan. In another five states, the governor is responsible for appointing members to the redistricting board. And in three states -- not separate -- the governor is directly involved in redrawing the district him or herself. In only eight states does the executive body actually not play a role. As both Democratic and Republican officials readily acknowledge, the partisan makeup of a newly shaped congressional district will almost certainly reflect the politics of the sitting governor.

"The odds are, if it is a Republican in the governor's chair, the seat will end up in GOP hands," said Schrimpf.

So what, exactly, are the stakes at play? Namey calculates that of the 36 gubernatorial races in 2010, 32 will involve governors who will impact their state's redistricting in some way or another.

Meanwhile, because of shifting populations, there is likely to be one more congressional seat added in Georgia, California, Nevada and Utah; possibly two more added in Florida and Arizona; and the chance of four more seats added in Texas. Every state on this list, except for Arizona, currently has a Republican governor. All but Utah will hold a gubernatorial election in 2010. If Republicans hold their power they will be well positioned.

Conversely, Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, and Pennsylvania all seem likely to lose a congressional seat as a result of diminishing populations. New York and Ohio could lose two. Every state on this list, except Missouri and Louisiana, is both run by a Democrat and will have a gubernatorial election in 2010.

Of course, in almost every state, the legislative chambers will have a say into how the congressional districts are re-drawn. And in this regard the governor's power is limited. Oftentimes, in fact, redistricting plans get sent to state courts to adjudicate disagreements.

In 2010, there will be more than 1,150 state senate races and more than 4,950 state house races held nationwide. Here, too, Democrats and Republicans are cognizant of any edge.

"A flip of 50 state seats in key chambers could mean a gain -- or a loss -- of 15 Democratic Congressional seats in the next round of redistricting," said Michael Sargeant, executive director of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee. "We need to continue winning statehouses so that we can be at the table when these district lines are drawn."

With all these elections coming at once, Republicans are clearly looking to the states as a golden opportunity to make national advances. And with a political brand that is, by their own accounts, poisonous, and with the odds currently favoring the possibility of a Democratic White House, the gubernatorial races of 2010 could very end up representing the GOP's lifeline.

"In the worst case scenario, 2010 would be the first, most important evidence that there is life in the Republican Party," said Craig Shirley, a longtime Republican strategist. "The elections that year will be vitally important because it will put on stage the worst creative skills of ever politician... Members of Congress aren't bright about handling Social Security, Medicare and the budget but they are astonishing bright at self-preservation... and drawing favorable [political] districts."

 
 

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- texastornado See Profile I'm a Fan of texastornado permalink

GOP'S motto: If fighting fairly fails, then cheat. Divide the districts to delute to democratic vote and enlarge the republican vote by redistricting. Also have the media attack your opponent. This the party of supposedly having values. Lying and cheating is their Modus operandi.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:42 PM on 07/09/2008
- Star2000dancer See Profile I'm a Fan of Star2000dancer permalink

We have to get the Republicans out of New York, Florida & California. They are destroying these states & all elections. Republicans & Bush still controls congress. Do'nt forget we still have the blue dogs in the Democratic party & the change from a majority vote to 60 instead of just a majority. Thank God Teddy Kennedy came back to pass the Healthcare vote we lost by one vote before recess.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:42 PM on 07/09/2008
- texastornado See Profile I'm a Fan of texastornado permalink

I wonder how many more house members and senators like lieberman there are in the democratic party.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:56 PM on 07/10/2008
- Raymondf See Profile I'm a Fan of Raymondf permalink

It will absolutely work, very easily.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:57 PM on 07/09/2008
- chicago25624 See Profile I'm a Fan of chicago25624 permalink

The last I saw Congress had an approval rating of 9%.

Remind me again who controls both houses of Congress.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:08 PM on 07/08/2008
- Raymondf See Profile I'm a Fan of Raymondf permalink

The DEMOCRATS, DEMOCRATS.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:56 PM on 07/09/2008
- wesinohio See Profile I'm a Fan of wesinohio permalink

When the Democratic Party secures a Republican filibuster-proof majority, then you can start talking about who "controls" congress.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 04:23 PM on 07/08/2008
- Raymondf See Profile I'm a Fan of Raymondf permalink

Whats the difference the dems.do it to the repubs too.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:02 PM on 07/09/2008
- macintoshsauce See Profile I'm a Fan of macintoshsauce permalink

Gerrymandering should be ILLEGAL!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:45 PM on 07/08/2008
- mscriblerus See Profile I'm a Fan of mscriblerus permalink

Why go through all that work reshaping voting districts when they could just do their jobs and get elected based on that. This isn't Stratego. Go back and read article 1 of the Constitution, brush up on the amendments, snap out of that punch-drunk party love induced hysteria, and start promoting a little general welfare.

I'm pretty sure nobody ran on a platform of gerrymandering.....but then again, it wouldn't surprise me if somebody did.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 07:25 AM on 07/08/2008
- Pamela1961 See Profile I'm a Fan of Pamela1961 permalink

They don't have to work so hard. Obama has gone so far to the middle he past it and went right. McCain is more of a Democrat than he is.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 05:16 AM on 07/08/2008
- Herekitty See Profile I'm a Fan of Herekitty permalink

No he isn't. He is doing what it takes to become the next President of the United States.

BTW: the communications companies can still be charged with the crimes they committed by the criminal courts. So what's the problem.

McCain is just being hustled this way and that way by the grandiose consortium of lobbyist.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:40 PM on 07/09/2008
- Raymondf See Profile I'm a Fan of Raymondf permalink

See you just proved that anyone who wants to be president will do what it takes. Same with Congress and Senate. thats the reason we have senators, and congresspersons with 30 to 65 years in the place. Term limits please.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:05 PM on 07/09/2008
- Raymondf See Profile I'm a Fan of Raymondf permalink

Yes he is pulling the wool over yours and almost everyone else.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:00 PM on 07/09/2008
- littlequeenie See Profile I'm a Fan of littlequeenie permalink

Oh really?
Please be more specific.
I had thought that McCain wants to extend Bush's tax cuts and therefore reduce taxes on the wealthy, reduce taxes on corporations, commit to off-shore drilling and then again, there is the gas tax holiday. Oh, Clinton was for that so is that what makes him a democrat? (Never mind every single economist insists it won't give any relief and yet will cost dearly).

Oh, I forgot, he is also against a woman's right to choose!! And to stay in Iraq and who knows, maybe bomb bomb bomb Iran.

Give me a break!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:10 AM on 07/08/2008
- Raymondf See Profile I'm a Fan of Raymondf permalink

No bombing Iran Israel will take care of that for us. Now as for the blockade of the straits of Hormuze. Israeli and US war ships will be together on that little tid-bit.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:11 PM on 07/09/2008
- wordvarc See Profile I'm a Fan of wordvarc permalink

.

Redistricting, like billion dollar presidential campaign spending, symbolizes how far we have strayed from democracy: the pathetic joke our political system has become.

.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 01:17 AM on 07/08/2008
- Ohioan4truth See Profile I'm a Fan of Ohioan4truth permalink

It may be a joke.......but I'm not laughing........I'm crying tears the size of Greyhound buses!
Viva la politicals (sarcasm included).

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 02:04 AM on 07/08/2008
- ChristopherLib See Profile I'm a Fan of ChristopherLib permalink

Okay want to play the gerrymandering game, the Dems can do that as well as the Republicans. After it's all done the only normally shaped districts will be the ones that cover whole states. See you in 2010 suckas, where we'll Gerrymander you Republicans to hell!

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:57 AM on 07/08/2008
- benman See Profile I'm a Fan of benman permalink

The best system on earth is the German, where you elect your local MP (like our congressional seats) and then they tack on some extra seats after the election (usually party hacks) to bring each party's total number of seats into parity with the number of votes it actually got. You have your own MP to write to over local concerns, and your party wins exactly the percentage of the total House (Bundestag) that it deserves.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:18 AM on 07/08/2008
- nonconformist2 See Profile I'm a Fan of nonconformist2 permalink

Republicans have never won on their policies, because when anyone looks closely at their policies, they are appalled. Lying, cheating, stealing, fear mongering, whatever it takes. That is all they know. They have no honor.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:16 PM on 07/07/2008
- rollingdivision See Profile I'm a Fan of rollingdivision permalink

This isn't news, Democrats and Republicans gerrymand.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 11:15 PM on 07/07/2008
- separatingwheatfromchaff See Profile I'm a Fan of separatingwheatfromchaff permalink

The Republican brand is poisonous according to their own accounts yet no steps are being taken to rectify the problem other than sleight of hand.They surely must know by now the fish rots from the head down.They need to get rid of their senior schemers and start behaving in an honorable fashion which means bringing impeachment charges against the whole administration from within their own party.They would regain the respect of most Americans almost instantaneously.This attitude of protecting criminals to the bitter end just because they're in your party is what's poisoning them.Keep up the good work.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:44 PM on 07/07/2008
- incontempt See Profile I'm a Fan of incontempt permalink

That would be the first and only redeeming act of the republican party..... to stand for the morals it preach's and start holding their own accountable .... they may stick together like shipmates but their ship will drag all of them down... and the closer they are the more likely they are sucked under!

Now lets see if we can spot the first rat in the water.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:49 PM on 07/09/2008
- catzoned See Profile I'm a Fan of catzoned permalink

You can prosecute but you can not legislate morality. These folks are morally bankrupt. I would love to see some accountabilty as well.

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:50 AM on 07/08/2008
- Msohio See Profile I'm a Fan of Msohio permalink

These people don't get it. The hammer has been silenced. Stealing more elections???

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:20 PM on 07/07/2008
- RTIII See Profile I'm a Fan of RTIII permalink


WHEN the Dems have a situation wherein they have a solid enough lead, I'd like to see them abolish Gerymandering altogether. At one point I worked out a set of rules that would work well, but I can't seem to find it to quickly cut and paste.

Essentially, cities and towns must be left whole and counties can be divided but districts can only span counties (parishes, boroughs) when a whole county isn't large enough or is too large. And, all boundary lines must be on political boundaries, not through the middle of neighborhoods, etc. There's a little more to it that must be considered, but this is the basic outline.

Doing this would still permit Gerymandering, to a point, but it would preclude the kinds of tactics the Rs have used. The trick would be to get such a plan permanent or nearly permanent, and also to get it implemented country wide as I think that at the moment states decide...

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 10:12 PM on 07/07/2008
- ProudNeoCon See Profile I'm a Fan of ProudNeoCon permalink

Great post, I agree that Gerymandering should be stoped on both sides. BUT why wait until Dems have a solid lead?

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 12:33 AM on 07/08/2008
- totaldisbelief See Profile I'm a Fan of totaldisbelief permalink

An Idea for the GOP....move all remaining Republicans to one area of the country and the rest of us can avoid it ;send our toxic waste there; turn it into a glowing hole; (feel free to add your ideas)

    Favorite    Flag as abusive Posted 09:17 PM on 07/07/2008
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