“Hillary Clinton is the toughest human being in the world. The whole world.”
-Tucker Carlson on the Tim Russert Show
“Chill out, we’re gonna win this election”
-Former president Bill Clinton, stumping for his wife on Sunday
Rewarded for their defiance?
With Sen. Hillary Clinton’s huge wins in three out of the four states in Junior Super Tuesday, the race for the Democratic presidential nomination has had a sudden jolt, aligning the momentum of each candidate.
Both Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama now appear unable to accrue the 2,025 delegates necessary to clinch the nomination. According to CNN, the current standings at the time of this article are Clinton: 1424, Obama: 1520
Clinton suggested a unity ticket the day after winning Ohio, Rhode Island and Texas, though Obama says that type of talk is premature.
But it’s certainly not over yet. Even with the big Pennsylvania primary on April 22nd, it is doubtful the keystone state could be the key to the nomination. This thing is going to the convention, and it is likely the super delegates will decide the Democratic primary.
That is, unless Florida and Michigan get a second round.
Both states could elect to submit a Party Run Process (do over) or a proposal to the credentials committee to seat the delegates. DNC spokesperson Karen Finney, speaking with Brian Williams on MSNBC today, stated that a do-over primary “has always has been, always will be” an available option for Florida and Michigan.
Florida Governor Charlie Crist has already stated that he supports a new primary in Florida. If Michigan jumps on board, the Democratic parties in both states might just get what they wanted all along: a greater importance of their states in the presidential nominating process.
Ironically, by breaking the party rules and being punished by the DNC, Florida and Michigan might end up being the kingmakers after all.
Image: http://blog.reidreport.com/uploaded_images/donkey6-773091.gif
-President Bush speaking at the White House, endorsing and standing with Republican presumptive nominee John McCain. Bush was asked how the Republicans would fare in the general election with the American electorate expressing a desire for change.
Finally, a confetti moment
Looks like the super delegates will decide this thing after all. After winning Ohio, Rhode Island, and Texas, Clinton is certainly back in the game.
CNN: “Clinton’s Texas win can be attributed to some of the same factors that led her to prevail in Ohio: Overwhelming support from seniors, voters worried about their financial status, and late deciders. Her big margins among these blocs were key in tilting the state to her favor.”
Time: “Hillary Clinton’s popular vote victories in Texas and Ohio fundamentally change the race for the Democratic presidential nomination in at least one important way: she’s still in the race for the nomination…Clinton will fight on for at least the next seven weeks, until Pennsylvania votes on April 22. To get an idea of how long a period that is in political years, the Iowa caucuses — remember them? — were only eight weeks ago.”
MSNBC: “As in other contests Obama won the black vote by a wide margin (86%-14%). But remember, blacks make up only 19% of the Democratic electorate, so the white vote was key for Clinton…Clinton regained her lead among the “white working class” — those who make less than $50,000 (69%-28%). She also won among whites, who make more than $50,000 (61%-37%)….Clinton also showed her strength in other areas: She won the late deciders; she won among union households; she was seen as best qualified to be Commander-In-Chief, and she was seen as the candidate with the best chance of winning in the fall.”
Politico:[Clinton stated,] “For everyone who has stumbled and stood right back up and for everyone who works hard and never gives up, this one is for you!” Clinton said. “You know what they say: as Ohio goes, so goes the nation. Well, this nation’s coming back and so is this campaign.”
Time: “Clinton is emboldened not just by her Tuesday wins, but by several other developments over the past few days. She has now taken the popular votes in all the major industrial states that have held contests, except for Obama’s home state of Illinois. Additionally, from Clinton’s point of view, Obama is only now beginning to experience the aggressive media scrutiny standard for a serious presidential candidate. And she has finally found an advertising and rhetorical strategy to highlight Obama’s relative lack of national security experience — his greatest weakness with voters.”
“Clinton’s only hope of winning a majority of the delegates is to overtake Obama’s elected delegate lead by winning the bulk of the remaining superdelegates.”
“This is the heart of Clinton’s multi-dimensional challenge. Obama has of late signed up more superdelegates than Clinton in part because they are swayed by his lead in elected delegates. Yet unless there is a significant change in the overall dynamic — a major Obama blunder or scandal for example — he is likely to continue accruing superdelegates regardless of Clinton’s big March 4 wins. Also, the act of securing the nomination with unelected convention votes could be considered by many Obama supporters as highly undemocratic, embittering and dividing the party on the eve of the general election.”
MSNBC: “It’s going to be a long seven weeks to Pennsylvania….”
What is most interesting to me is the flip in how late-deciders chose to vote. Just last week, the later a Democratic primary voter made up his or her mind, the more likely they were to vote for Sen. Obama. That trend seems to have turned on its head as a sense of buyers remorse has overtaken many party members, as further doubts in Obama’s ability to win in the general election surface.
Though neither Sen. Clinton or Sen. Obama will likely accrue the needed the 2,025 state delegates to seize the nomination, Clinton’s Tuesday win gives her a strong hand to play, even if her delegate count comes short of Obama’s. By winning the states that are the largest, most important, and must-win in the general election (no president in living memory has won without Ohio), Clinton can claim that she can win all the battleground states against John McCain.
But she can’t win the nomination without the super delegates.
[flv]http://garlinggauge.com/videos/hillarysuperdelegate.flv[/flv]
“Independent judgement”
So how does this whole super delegate thing work anyways? At the State of the Black Union, which Sen. Clinton was the only presidential candidate to attend, Sen. Clinton spoke to Tavis Smiley on how the super delegates function.
The job of the super delegates is to choose the strongest nominee for the party in case of a split convention, no matter what the final delegate count, and ultimately who would be the best president of the United States. And choose they certainly will.
See also:
Florida & Michigan Might Play Election Role They Wanted After All
Your tax dollars at work
Support the war in Iraq? Then these videos are for you.
[flv]http://garlinggauge.com/videos/deadpuppy.flv[/flv]
U.S. Soldier in Iraq throws a puppy off a cliff
Read more about it here, here, and here.
[flv]http://garlinggauge.com/videos/ussoldierstorturehurtdog.flv[/flv]
U.S. Soldiers throwing rocks at an injured dog
[flv]http://garlinggauge.com/videos/ussoldierstorturesheep.flv[/flv]
U.S. Soldiers throwing a flash bang at a farmer and sheep
[flv]http://garlinggauge.com/videos/abugharibsoldier.flv[/flv]
Oh ya, they torture people too
Kill more puppies: Support McCain in ‘08
Update: Motari found?
Image: http://a.abcnews.com/images/Politics/apr_bush_mccain_070425_ms.jpg
The Fighter
As the race for the Democratic presidential nomination narrows, MSNBC has created a video documentary on each of of the remaining candidates, Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama.
Today’s video is on Sen. Clinton; a history of her life in politics, challenges as an untraditional First Lady, and the events leading up to a week ago in history. Check back for Sen. Barack Obama.
[flv]http://garlinggauge.com/videos/msnbcclinton.flv[/flv]
Part 1
[flv]http://garlinggauge.com/videos/msnbchillaryclinton.flv[/flv]
Part 2
[flv]http://garlinggauge.com/videos/msnbcclinton3.flv[/flv]
Part 3
[flv]http://garlinggauge.com/videos/msnbcclinton4.flv[/flv]
Part 4
[flv]http://garlinggauge.com/videos/msnbcclinton5.flv[/flv]
Part 5
Images: http://www.nhpr.org/files/clinton021707.jpg, http://www.jamaicans.com/blog/wp-content/hillary-clinton-posters.jpg
Who is best to lead in a crisis?
Keying up to the ‘Junior Super Tuesday’ election, the Clinton campaign has launched a powerful ad focusing on leadership in a crisis, and almost immediately the Obama campaign released a response.
[flv]http://garlinggauge.com/videos/children.flv[/flv]
Children
[flv]http://garlinggauge.com/videos/ringing.flv[/flv]
Ringing
During the 2007 congressional elections, with the successful swiftboating of John Kerry still fresh in their minds, the DNC made it very clear that any Republican attack needed to be responded to within 24 hours. While the Obama campaign’s quick response gives merit its political reflexes, the rapidity of the response also indicates that the ‘Children’ ad could have accurately targeted a weak spot for Obama.
[flv]http://garlinggauge.com/videos/children2.flv[/flv]
Clinton elaborates
Change is certainly in the air, but Clinton still holds a strong hand with her experience card. We also know her, and trust she would fight tooth and nail for what she believes in. Obama’s appeal notwithstanding, his vulnerability is arguably his inexperience, his novelty. We don’t know how he’ll response to a full Republican onslaught. We don’t know how the Obama will react in a crisis. Democrats might not all approve of the scrappiness of Clintonian politics, but we know they are fighters.
And that’s what has riven the Democratic party: We want to break from the partisan politics of the current administration and also want the experience to make real change happen. We want to galvanize our base while also bringing new voters into the party. We want to celebrate our past principles and accomplishments while setting a new trajectory for the future. We want change and experience.
But even with momentum siding with change over experience, Clinton’s ad raises doubts on Obama’s lightweight abilities to handle the awesome responsibility of president. McCain is also attacking this chink in Obama’s armor, suggesting that Obama doesn’t understand national security issues and the threat and whereabouts of al-Qaeda.
[flv]http://garlinggauge.com/videos/mccainobamairaq.flv[/flv]
McCain & Obama on al-Qaeda in Iraq
These ads and attacks have drawn criticism as some say they play on the so called ‘politics of fear’. This is a weak and tiresome argument, as a debate on national security issues is essential and certainly fair play in presidential elections.
And compared to Johnson’s Daisy Girl and Tancredo’s xenophobic masterpiece, ‘Children’ and ‘Ringing’ are small potatoes.
But now that the question is out, many Democrats in Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island and Vermont will be voting on Tuesday for who they believe will best protect their families at 3 AM.
